The duration of anticoagulation depends on an individual's risk of recurrent thrombosis off anticoagulation versus the risk of major bleeding on anticoagulation. It is important to take into consideration that the consequences of a major bleed are generally more severe than the consequences of a recurrent episode of venous thromboembolism (VTE) (e.g. case-fatality rate of ~10% versus ~5%, respectively). The patient's preference, quality of life and other functional issues also need to be considered.
Recurrent episodes of VTE may be due to extension of the original thrombus or may be due to a new episode of VTE that is unrelated to the initial episode. The risk of recurrence reflects the patient's underlying predisposition to VTE and persists as long as an acquired risk factor is present (e.g. patients with cancer) or indefinitely (e.g. patients with unprovoked VTE).
The risk of bleeding differs among patients, with the highest risk in older patients and during the first month of anticoagulation. Anticoagulant therapy should be stopped when the benefits no longer clearly outweigh the risks, or when patients who are fully informed and have a good understanding of the associated risks want to stop, even if continuation of treatment is expected to be of overall benefit.
The minimum duration of treatment of VTE is considered to be 3 months, as a shorter duration is associated with a significant increase in recurrence risk. After acute treatment of VTE, if the risk of recurrence outweighs the risk of bleeding, anticoagulation may be continued for secondary prevention of VTE.
In patients with a first unprovoked VTE, the decision to stop anticoagulant therapy at 3 months or to continue treatment indefinitely is strongly influenced by the preferences of an informed patient. To enable shared decision making, the expected risks of recurrence with and without indefinite anticoagulant therapy, and the expected consequences of recurrent VTE and bleeding, need to be explained to the patient.
VTE provoked by a transient risk factor
Patients with VTE provoked by a transient risk factor- see table 1, have a much lower risk of recurrence than those with an unprovoked VTE or a persistent risk factor.
Table 1. Transient risk factors that can provoke a VTE
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Risk factor
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Comments
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Surgery
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Within the past 3 months
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Hospitalisation
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Plaster cast immobilisation
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Presence of a central venous catheter
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Oestrogen therapy
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Combined contraceptive pill, hormone replacement therapy
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Pregnancy and puerperium
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Flight of >8 hours
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Recent leg injuries/trauma
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E.g. fracture
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Immobilisation
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Within 6 weeks
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The stronger the provoking risk factor is (e.g. recent major surgery), the lower the expected risk of recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy. Note that temporary immobility risk factors (e.g. confined to bed ≥3 days or a flight of <6 hours) are weak risk factors.
In the first year after stopping therapy for VTE with a transient risk factor, the risk of recurrence is about 1-2% if VTE was provoked by a major risk factor and about 5% if VTE was provoked by a minor risk factor. By 5 years, the risk of recurrence is approximately 3-fold higher (3% for major risk factor, 15% for minor risk factor).
Cancer-associated VTE
Risk of recurrent VTE is markedly increased in patients with active cancer (20% per patient-year); the risk is higher in patients with metastatic compared with localised disease. The risk of recurrent VTE may be lower if it occurred during chemotherapy and the chemotherapy has been stopped.
People who experience a cancer-associated VTE and are subsequently cured of cancer generally have a low risk of recurrent VTE.
Unprovoked VTE
Patients with a first unprovoked episode of DVT or PE on average have a risk of recurrence of about 10% in the first year, 30% in the first 5 years and 50% in the first 10 years after stopping anticoagulant therapy.
Several methods to further stratify the recurrence risk have been proposed. As a result of their poor performance in validation cohorts, risk scores, such as DASH and HERDOO-2, are not recommended for routine use in guiding duration of anticoagulation.
The following may be taken into account in decision-making:
- The recurrence risk in men is approximately 1.5-fold higher than that in women.
- The recurrence risk in people with an elevated D-dimer level at one month after cessation of anticoagulation for proximal DVT or PE is approximately twice that of people with a normal D-dimer level.
- People whose index VTE event was a PE are 3 to 4 times more likely to experience a PE as their recurrent event than people whose index event was a DVT.
- The presence of residual abnormalities on ultrasound is detected in approximately one third of patients and does not appear to be a clinically-important risk factor for recurrence after stopping anticoagulant therapy.
- People with isolated calf (distal) DVT have a 50% lower risk of recurrence than those with proximal DVT or PE.
- People with a second episode of VTE have a higher risk of recurrence.
- With the exception of appropriate testing for antiphospholipid syndrome, thrombophilia testing only has a very limited role in guiding decisions about duration of anticoagulation
Risk of bleeding with anticoagulation
The risk of bleeding secondary to anticoagulation is highest during the first 3 months of treatment and stabilises after the first year.
Risk of bleeding differs markedly among patients depending on the prevalence of risk factors (e.g. age>75yrs; previous bleeding; cancer (including metastatic); renal failure; liver failure; thrombocytopenia; previous stroke; diabetes; anaemia; antiplatelet therapy; poor anticoagulant control; recent surgery; frequent falls; alcohol abuse).
Patients without any risk factors have a low annual risk of major bleeding at 0.8% while those with two or more risk factors have an annual risk greater than 6%. There are no well-validated scoring systems for predicting bleeding risk when anticoagulated for previous VTE.
Recommendations
- Patients with their first VTE provoked by any transient risk factor(s) should receive a minimum of 3 months of anticoagulant therapy.
- Although 3 months is the usual length of time-limited treatment, 6 months may be preferred if:
- (i) the VTE was very large or very symptomatic
- (ii) the symptoms of the initial VTE persist
- (iii) the patient is not ready (confident) to stop anticoagulant therapy at 3 months
- (iv) the patient does not have a high risk for bleeding
- Patients with their first unprovoked episode of VTE should receive a minimum of 3 months anticoagulant therapy and then be assessed for indefinite anticoagulant therapy. If patients have a high bleeding risk, anticoagulation should be stopped. All other patients should be considered for indefinite treatment.
- For the majority of patients with an isolated calf (distal) DVT treated with anticoagulation, treatment duration should be 3 months. A longer course may be necessary if:
- (i) symptoms persist
- (ii) the patient is not ready (confident) to stop anticoagulant therapy
- (iii) the patient does not have a high risk for bleeding. In particular, men under the age of 50 with an unprovoked distal DVT appear to have a higher recurrence risk and should be considered for indefinite anticoagulation
- Patients with a central venous catheter (CVC) -associated VTE should receive 3 months of anticoagulation and longer if the patient continues to have a CVC.
- For patients with a second episode of VTE, if both episodes were provoked by a transient risk factor which has since resolved, treat for 3 months, followed by prophylaxis if there are any other risk factors.
- A second episode of unprovoked VTE is a strong indication for indefinite anticoagulant therapy unless there is a very high bleeding risk.
- Patients with active cancer and VTE should receive indefinite anticoagulant therapy. Cancer patients with potentially curable disease and VTE should be treated for a minimum of 3 months but should continue if they are undergoing systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) until this is completed.
- Patients who have been recommended indefinite anticoagulant therapy should be reassessed periodically (e.g. annually) to re-estimate the VTE vs bleeding risk balance. Follow up in primary care may be suitable in this context.
Table 2. Summary of recommendations
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Category of VTE
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Duration of treatment
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First provoked VTE
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3 months
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First unprovoked VTE
- Low / moderate bleeding risk
- High bleeding risk
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Indefinite with periodic review
3 months
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Isolated calf (distal) DVT
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3 months
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Second provoked VTE
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3 months
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Second unprovoked VTE
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Same as first unprovoked VTE
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Cancer-associated VTE
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Minimum 3 months, then reassess and continue if active cancer or continuing SACT
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